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☆ Morning Bid: Some payback, but bonds hug gains on oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The oil price slide was helped by signs from Israel that it's open to pauses in the Gaza fighting. The typically hawkish Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari insisted it was still too early to take another rate hike off the table. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy interest rate again, as expected, by another quarter point to a 12-year high of 4.35%. Overall, the global stocks picture reflected some of the cooling of last week's rally and some of the China export numbers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, that's, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid, Zimmer, Jack Henry, Akamai, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Minneapolis Fed, International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of Australia, Asia bourses, UBS, Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Michael Barr , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Horton, Mosaic, Emerson Electric, Occidental, Devon Energy, Products, Chemicals, Gen, Fidelity, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Israel, Gaza, China, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Swiss, Canada, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael Barr ,, Lorie Logan , Kansas, eBay, Gilead, Occidental Petroleum

☆ Morning Bid: Fed vigil sees oil recoil and UK surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's consumer prices raced ahead at an unexpectedly brisk clip last month, but outlier Britain got a positive surprise as inflation there fell back in August. Starts swooned last month, but building permits - which many see as a better gauge of future activity - beat forecasts and pushed higher. Although Asia bourses were in the red earlier, European stocks pushed higher and Wall St futures were positive ahead of the open too. Relief in the oil market pulled two-year Treasury yields back about 5 basis points from two-month highs at 5.12%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision, new economic projections and press conference.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Asia bourses, Mills, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Fed, Friday's Bank of Japan, Arm Holdings, U.S, New, . Federal, Bank of Canada, FedEx, United Nations General Assembly, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Housing, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, New York City, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Quietly absorbing one more Fed hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Early Tuesday, futures priced almost a two-thirds chance of that additional quarter-point move in November. And yet - perhaps with the uncertainty dissipating, the economy still robust and bond markets better priced - world markets appear to be taking the tighter odds in their stride. More impressively in the circumstances, restive bond markets calmed down and bond yields continued to dial back from their highest in over a decade last week. Asia bourses more widely and European indices were higher, while Wall St futures were flat ahead of the open.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Gina Raimondo, China's, Idalia, Michael Barr, JM Smucker, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta, Overseas, U.S . Commerce, Garden Holdings, Wall, U.S, Dallas Fed, Federal, Treasury, HP, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Washington, Beijing, China, HK, Asia, Florida's, Coast, Cuba

☆ Morning Bid: August rescued by Nvidia, bond rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA dire August for world markets is being rehabilitated in its final week, helped by another sparkling AI-related surprise from chip giant Nvidia (NVDA.O) and a rebound in battered bond markets. The bar for surprise from Wednesday's earnings update was sky high, but the company somehow managed to vault it again. Despite the rebound the index is still down more than 4% for August - its worst month since last September. Ironically, the retreat in bond yields comes amid signs of cooling economic activity - but that comes with the significant relief that central banks may not have to squeeze any harder to get inflation back close to targets. Bond yields are in retreat in advance of the speech, helped by the easing economic data and a decent 20-year bond auction on Wednesday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, China's spluttering, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, Woodside Energy, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Intuit, Ulta, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Frankfurt, Asia, Shanghai, Europe, Kansas, Jackson

☆ Morning Bid: Wall St shines, China misses again
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Back on Wall Street, another heavy earnings week beckons and the July U.S. employment report on Friday looms large. Stock futures are marginally positive ahead of Monday's open, Asia bourses mostly just caught up with Friday's U.S. gains and European indexes were little changed. U.S. Treasury yields were steady, with the dollar firmer - due mainly to dollar/yen's jump to three-week highs. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Alex Richardson <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, What's, Asia bourses, Alex Richardson Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Bank of England, Friday's U.S, Treasury, European Banking Authority, Loews, Arista Networks, Eversource Energy, ON Semiconductor, SBA Communications, Republic Services, Diamondback Energy, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, United States, Tokyo, Asia, Western, Chicago

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

☆ Morning Bid: Business brakes in June swoon, dollar jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanJust as world stock prices raced ahead this month, broader business activity appeared to be stalling again. Equivalent Japanese and British surveys also showed sub-forecast growth and markets nervously await the U.S. version later on Friday. The dollar was the big market mover - surging into the weekend against Asia and European currencies. Inflation is falling faster, real wage growth is back positive, the jobs market is loosening slightly and housing is rebounding somewhat. So even as stock prices have come off the year's highs, the VIX (.VIX) implied volatility gauge continues to fall away - closing below 13 on Thursday for the first time since January 2020.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Wall, Powell's, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Jane Merriman Organizations: Asia, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Brent, Japan's, Swiss, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Asia, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Fearless VIX, China miss, Canada hike?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall St's 'fear index', the VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied S&P500 equity volatility, closed below 14 on Tuesday for the first time since February 2020 - more than 5 points below its 33 year average. What's more, the OECD saw Fed rates peaking after just one more hike to the 5.25-5.5% range and "modest" cuts next year. Oil prices remain lower on the week despite new Saudi output cut plans and year-on-year prices are still falling at 36%. Events to watch for later on Wednesday:* Bank of Canada key policy interest rate announcement* U.S. April trade balance. Federal Reserve issues Consumer Credit report for April* Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak travels to Washington to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden* U.S. corporate earnings: Campbell Soup, Brown-FormanReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Louise Heavens <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Mike Dolan, you'd, eked, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Rishi Sunak, Joe Biden, Campbell, Brown, Forman, Louise Heavens Organizations: U.S, Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Development, World Bank, OECD, Bank of Canada, Canadian, Bank of, Federal, Britain's, Forman Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, York, Saudi, Asia, Bank of Canada, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: Amazon cools, Intel warms, Japan hesitates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A smartphone with a displayed Intel logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration taken March 6, 2023. But the dramatic re-acceleration of Big Tech stocks this week - where the NYFANG+TM (.NYFANG) index of the top 10 Big Tech stocks is now up 37% so far this year - is competing with multiple macro narratives that are increasingly hard to read. With the Fed meeting in view, the release of March PCE price inflation data later on Friday tops the diary. Wall St stock futures fell back 0.4% after a wild ride in Amazon.com shares overnight. With much of Europe and Asia closed on Monday for the May Day bank holiday, Asia bourses advanced in Wall St's slipstream but Europe retreated sharply on some jarring corporate updates.

☆ Morning Bid: April boomlet mocks recession script
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe signal is still lost in an awful lot of noise. With next week's Big Tech earnings reports hoving into view, the overall U.S. corporate healthcheck remains pretty mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overall global stock market direction remains equivocal. Although Asia bourses had initially followed Wall St's Thursday swoon, European indexes and S&P500 futures were little changed on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Morning Bid: 'Soft landing' or 'no landing'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day policymaking meeting, the economic news from around the world brightened considerably. China's economic activity swung back to growth in January after three months of contraction, according to official business surveys released on Tuesday. The euro zone economy confounded forecasts for a quarterly contraction of gross domestic product in the final three months of 2022. Eurostat estimated GDP in the bloc rose 0.1% in Q4 despite consensus expectations for a fall of 0.1%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude deflation?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With everyone on Wall St seemingly hand wringing about stagflation next year, the price of crude oil has plummeted by up to 10% this week to its lowest since early January - offering some relief in an otherwise murky outlook. Crucially for inflation worriers, year-on-year crude price gains - which were running at 50-100% between February's Ukraine invasion and midyear - have now fallen to just 4% and could soon be a disinflationary force in consumer price baskets. But, contrary to many prior energy market assumptions, the impact of Monday G7's Russian oil price cap at $60pb for seaborne crude is anchoring prices and underscoring massive discounts for Russia oil - already selling for as low as $55pb. The Bank of Canada is the latest on the list on Wednesday and expected to hike rates by another half point, as are the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England next week. European and Asia bourses - even Shanghai and Hong Kong despite the lifting COVID restrictions - were in negative territory too.

☆ Morning Bid: China, COVID and Crude
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Rare anti-government unrest across China's cities over the weekend has unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end. Wary that both the unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and oil - with crude oil prices falling to close to $80 per barrel, their lowest since January. A U.S. regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. As U.S. markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, attention will return to Federal Reserve tightening, the labour market and inflation picture. The German banking giant said it expected U.S. output to drop 2% over the whole year, euro zone output to decline 1% and world economic growth to slow to a recessionary 2%.

☆ Morning Bid: Gloomy enough?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Asset managers tout a return to beaten-down bonds as a result - even if there's far less enthusiasm for equity in that environment. But the view hinges on economies slowing to a point that drags inflation back down toward 2% targets. So far at least, most incoming economic numbers are less gloomy than forecast. Likewise equivalents for the euro zone, China and the world at large - with UK surprises the most positive since April. The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points.

☆ Morning Bid: Meta averse, ECB decides and CS slides
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Meta added a deep pothole to an already bumpy U.S. earnings season - another obstacle to a market pumped-up by bets of some central bank relief on the horizon as G7 economies slow. read moreWith Apple (AAPL.O) and Amazon reporting later on Thursday, sentiment toward tech giants remains on edge. But after two-week, trough-to-peak bounce of almost 10%, global stock indices (.MIWD00000PUS) struggled to make much headway for the second session on Thursday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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